Only one way to find out. You can do the calculations based on the fan's current, PWM rate, duty cycle, thermal resistance of the MOSFET, dissipation of the device based on voltage/Rds(on)/current flow, etc.etc.etc...or you can just try it. One thing for sure, if you use it without a heat sink to save a buck, it's a dumb way to find out if the pieces/parts will heat up or not.
What is the end result of this project anyways? Are you driving an automotive type radiator fan for the purpose of being an automotive type radiator fan or something else?
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