Technological Advancements/Robotic and Automated Jobs and Applications...

[rxforspeed]

Hello all...

I had rambled on in another post about this topic (I'm bad for that sometimes), and I wanted to see if and what kind of technological advancements have affected other members of this forum. Whether it's a lost job to an automated or robotic assembly machine or a great help by saving labor costs, time, etc. by using some sort of animated/robotic application to replace your own or others' labor...

I'm just interested in the topic, there's really no other reason for me asking; it's not like I've lost a job to a robot or a machine (not yet, anyway). I know that in a lot of cases this kind of technology has not only saved lives, limbs, and risks by removing the human element from danger (like unmanned armed forces "front line" and "surveying" equipment, bomb and explosive disposal machines and equipment, and many similar applications), but there have also been numerous jobs and careers lost to automated assembly lines and robotic machines. Take the automotive industry, for example: there are now a great deal of assembly and installation positions that were once occupied by an actual human worker but have been replaced by automated assembly machines and equipment. Some of you older forum members may remember a time when telephone operators used to manually switch your phone call, and even connected you. I've installed, updated, and have even overseen the installation of several automated telephony switching system equipment in the last decade or so. Most of those systems need little or no human involvement, intervention, or even maintennance to operate correctly...

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for this advancement-but did you ever stop and think where it'll stop? You can imagine the sci-fi crap from movies such as "I Robot" and others, but to be a bit more serious just imagine what kind of job opportunities our grandchildren, or their grandchildren will have. The faster we advance, the quicker this technology becomes affordable for not just the big corporations but medium and smaller businesses as well as individuals and hobbists like most of us.

I'd bet that at least within my lifetime (I'm still under 30) I'll see a fully automated fast food joint, or it's retail outlet store equivalent. No more worries about spit in your food-just make sure to check it for oil or lubricant leaks...

I'm not too worried about my eight-year-old son, or even his children-as long as they stay in or around this area. We're pretty much technologically isolated here in Kentucky; it's almost like we're about ten or twenty years behind the big cities. There are also really no good jobs, unless you're in the medical field or prefer to travel five nights out of the week. But we do eventually see the technology in this area-just not as fast as more densely populated places...

This is really just a topic to think about, how long do you think it'll take until almost every job is perfomed by a machine? When we're at or near that level of advancement, what will the majority of the population be doing for income or recreation? Then again, there's still the possibility that the human element will always play an important role in at least a small aspect of every automated machine or robotic application; we still have to design, build, program, set-up, and maintain these systems-well, mostly anyway...

Artificial intelligence was just a science fiction dream, a made-up fantasy at one time. That wasn't really that long ago, either. The very reason we're all here at this forum is because we're all either striving for information or providing it (thanks to all those who do!) on programming and controlling just one type of microcontroller with a variation of the BASIC language. Imagine trying to explain that to even the most educated and brightest scientist/inventor/mathematician of the forties-I'm sure you'd either be laughed out of the building or told to take your story to Hollywood back then. There were no transistors, logic controllers, or anything of the sort at that time-just the ENIAC (a computer that was housed in several large rooms, built in the early '40's, that couldn't even make calculations near the capabilities that a simple $1 calculator of today can). Now look where we're at...

Another thing to consider-some of the higher level PICs (18FXXX series) have some self-programming capabilities. How long do you think it'll take until we see a microcontroller/microprocessor that can (for the most part) just be installed into a circuit with whatever sensors and interfacing or peripheral components are needed and basically learn, or program itself to do exactly what's needed in that particular application without the need for human written software? That would be the "beginning of the end" as some could say, or the start of the peak of artificial intelligence...

So many companies, inventors, individuals, and really anybody that designs or builds anything electronic for a living or a hobby are competing with each other or time to develop the latest and greatest newest gadget, component, or product that there's really no chance for us to slow down, or stop and think about what kind of job opportunities our great-great-grandchildren will have in the next century or so. As A.I. continues to advance at the alarming rate it is, and automation becomes the norm on not only assembly lines, but everything that has the possibility to save a little overhead, reduce the number of required human employees, simplify tasks carried out by machines and humans alike, etc., we may end up ruining the future for our own decendants if we're not careful. I don't want to be the one to say, "I told you so", but we should really carefully plan out the development and usage of this technology as much as possible to ensure that an actual job market and human economy will be not only stable, but even possible in the coming centuries. Because, at this rate of expansion, we'll soon have automated assembly lines designing, building, programming, maintaining, and performing most, if not all of the tasks that currently require at least some level of human intelligence to function and operate properly...

Another example would be the computers, processors, etc. used forty or fifty years ago verses what's currently on the market-the information that even the 6-pin SOIC or 8-DIP PIC MCUs are capable of carrying and recording wouldn't even fit into a single massive room back then, let alone such a small package that would fit on the average person's fingernail today. Imagine what'll be available in the next forty or fifty years. Hobbiest programmers may become non-existant, or outdated due to self-programming capabilities that I'm sure will continue to rapidly expand and grow over the next couple of decades-if it even takes that long to develop...

Well, you guys have heard enough about my thoughts on the subject. I'd like to hear some of yours if you'd be willing to share and participate in this discussion. It's all for fun-we might be able to look back at this within a couple of decades and see either how far off my/our estimates were or how close we're coming to the elimination of our own jobs or careers. Whatever comes to mind, feel free to share your opinions and thoughts on this matter...

Thanks in advance for all your time, help, cooperation, thoughts, ideas, criticism, or whatever else you can think of relating to this subject. I'm looking forward to seeing other's views...

Sincerely,
-Adam Collins

[RussMartin]

Robert A. Heinlein pointed out, long ago, that anything conceived or built by a human mind still has built into it the limitations of the human mind.

My paternal grandfather gave up a peripatetic existence (Missouri, Texas, New Mexico, then Oklahoma) of rural subsistence farming about 90 years ago and started fixing dilapidated automobiles to re-sell, sometimes taking as trade-ins horse-drawn wagons and buggies . . .

[Bronurstomp]

Technical advancements will have their benefits and drawbacks for people. The question is: What are the trade-offs? I think for the next generation or two, the benefits will out weigh the drawbacks. Autonomous cars and aircraft have my vote for replacing human pilots. Replacing a human operator/pilot that has multi - millisecond reflexes with a microcontroller that has potentially sub- microsecond reflexes makes for safer travel for everyone IMHO. At least initially I envision transport to go autonomous, then mass transit, then the general public. I could build my own given an unlimited budget
I'm hoping that as technology advances, our leisure time will continue to grow until we reach a point where we no longer have to even consider where our meals will come from, or even what we have for an income. The key, I think, will be the discovery of some type of clean renewable compact energy source that no one can monopolize. Maybe that blue stuff on Mercury?
For some interesting forward looking material, read "The Great Mambo Chicken And The Transhuman Condition". I forget the authors, but very interesting thought provoking reading on this subject.
If I were one of those people 'back in the day' of mundane rote repetitive manual labor in an assembly line, I would not have survived long. I'm also not physically suited to digging a ditch with a pick and shovel, but I can easily learn how to operate a bucket loader.

[mackrackit]

Whether it's a lost job to an automated or robotic assembly machine or a great help by saving labor costs, time, etc. by using some sort of animated/robotic application to replace your own or others' labor...

I am sure it has happened, but I have not seen a job lost due to an automated machine. Maybe a job position change but not lost. Maybe the person's task was replaced and the person for some reason was not able to fill another position for the same employer and had to move on, but number of people positions overall seems to me to increase.

Whenever a repeat customer calls with a new project, either a new machine or automation of an existing, I am greeted with smile not frowns from the workers there. I feel this is because they realize if their employer is doing well enough to make that kind of an investment business is good so they will not have to worry about layoffs and their daily task will become easier and safer.

I will use those two punch presses I told you about on another thread for an example. You seem to know about the dangers of that kind of that kind of repetitive work.

The two presses are owned by a friend of mine who has a machine/fab shop. When the demand for the product using the parts made on a press of that type increased to the point they were having trouble keeping up is when it was either by more of the same old dangerous press or build the auto presses.

After the auto presses went on line, the same two people that ran the old are still running the new autos. They do not do the same task as before, but they are still making the same part. Then my friend had to hire three more people to keep up with the increase in production down the line. Yes, if more of the old style of press was purchased and operators hired to run them the employee count may have increased by five instead of three, but my point is. no jobs were lost.

I see the same thing over and over. If said company is doing poorly, they will not invest in new equipment to cut cost. Job lose is from a company doing poorly.

At least that is the way it looks from here.

[rxforspeed]

You all seem to have excellent and optimistic views on this topic. It was really something that just "came to mind" and I figured I'd start a thread about it on this forum. After all, this is one of the most intellectual forums of the few I currently visit. Well, in all honesty, I've pretty much stayed on here exclusively since Lester approved my account, and that's been for many reasons...

There are a great deal of not only PBP programming "gurus" here, but also some rather well-educated Electrical Engineers and a lot of informative resources and members that are in the field I'll soon be joining. I'm starting my "official" classes this coming Spring semester for my Bachelor's in Electrical Engineering, although an algebra/calc/trig "refresher" course I've signed up for starts later this month...

I have a need to associate with others not only like myself, but also smarter and more experienced colleages with the same general interests and hobbies I share, and this forum has not (and I believe will not) let me down. The views and opinions expressed by most all members here have made me want to try and strive harder to reach my goals for my higher education...

But, I'll dread the day when we run out of oil. I've been a "hot-rodder" since I could drive, and have always been fascinated by almost any custom vehicle. I do have a Suzuki Samurai project that I hope to finish before I graduate, and it is an "alternative fuel" vehicle. It's primary use will be an off-road recreational vehicle (think "big" ATV, tube frame, tube 'cage, tandem seating, 6:1 or lower "low" t-case gears, 37-38" tires, Toyota 8" solid axles-front and rear, etc.-your basic "rock buggy"), and will be powered from an 8-gallon PROPANE tank. It may not be the *best* alt. fuel, but it'll allow the 'Zuk to run upside-down, at least until the oil drains from the engine and it seizes up...

BUT-automatronic transportation would have MANY benefits over human reflexes and reaction time. I'd still miss shifting gears, but I think I could live with it for daily commutes, as long as we're still allowed to participate in various motorsports like autocrosses, hillclimbs, NASA, SOLO2, SCCA, drag races, 4WD and 4X4 competitions, etc.

Which brings to mind: I've often wondered from quite an early age (and will most likely figure out EXACTLY why within the next four or more years of school) why it's so hard to power a fully electric vehicle. With the right motors, alternators/generators, etc., why couldn't some vehicle be designed that could ALMOST generate it's own energy? 12VDC automotive batteries will last years (especially current sealed, enclosed, and cell batteries) with only an 80-120amp alternator, in most cases (vehicle dependent, of course). I know it takes power from the crankshaft to drive the alternator, but with technology at the level we're at today, you'd (or I do anyway) think this example could be "scaled up". For instance, why not run multiple alternators attached to axleshafts, driveshafts, brake hubs, etc. to help regenerate lost battery power? I'm sure even with the most efficient systems that could be developed, the vehicle's owner would still most likely have to recharge the batteries on a daily basis, but would a system like this make any sense to you guys? I think there's a possibility, but I don't have that degree yet either...

I'm rambling on again, but I've tried to stay *somewhat* close to the topic this time. Another idea for automatronic vehicles could be a modified version of the live "third rail" systems used in subways. There'd be a great danger for pedestrians crossing the road, especially for "jay-walkers", but it could be adapted in way to work, most likely with billions of dollars worth of road work to bury the live rail...

It's refreshing to hear that the automated punches you've built have actually produced jobs for your client/friend, Dave. It's possible that client (or friend) may have even saved a bit of money on insuring his workers with the added benefit of a less-dangerous environment (with those punches, anyway). Just a random optimistic thought. I'd like to see what kind of job opportunities are available for industrial machine/appliance controller designers/builders/programmers, so I'll search for some related material on the web when I get a few free moments. I'm pretty mechanically-inclined, so I think that's a field that would really "keep me on my toes", and wouldn't bore me to death...

I could ramble on and on about so much crap, especially about what I think may lie in store for us in the future, whether it's the next few decades or the next century. You guys have really hit the nail on the head with your replies; I can sometimes be a bit pessimistic about things, but you all have pointed out some rather valuable facts and arguments that I neglected to contemplate in the original post. As long as more jobs arise or at least stabilize from our advancing technology, then I'm sure there will be nothing to worry about-in the next century or so anyway...

Until then, I'd still like to hear some more views on anything of interest to you guys that even remotely fit into this topic, which could literally be almost anything. I rather enjoy discussions like these...

Thanks for all your input, and I'm hoping to see more soon!
-Adam Collins

[Bronurstomp]

Any decently engineered electric vehicle already will have regenerative braking. That is a fairly old and well understood concept. Any electric motor can be used as a generator. When an electic veihicle coasts down a hill, or is doing the opposite to acceleration, the energy is dumped back into the batteries. The exception might be a fuel-cell based power plant. I am not familair with any fuel cell powered machines, but I would assume that some type of battery or capacitor would be needed for large current dump requirements, and those devices can be regeneratively recharged.