The Future Of Hobby Electronics.

[T.Jackson]

During the summer of 1947, Tuesday, December 16th, Walter Brattain & John Bardeen invented the World’s first solid-state transistor. Indisputably, you wouldn’t be reading this text on your computer screen right now without the advent of this discovery. Modern technology relies entirely upon millions of integrated transistors to perform some of today’s even “most simplest” tasks. Highly sophisticated computing soon to be approaching the usage of billions upon billions jam packed into an area about the size of the head on a matchstick. Some consumer electrical goods are now costing more to dispose of than to purchase new. The service technician’s days are undoubtedly numbered if not already over. Nothing that’s economically feasible to repair means little or next to no work for today’s aging serviceman.

Currently the retail cost of consumer electronics is absolutely “mind-boggling”. And that’s even putting it mildly. Brand new DVD players with full warranty can be purchased for as little as $35 AUS. CRT televisions can be purchased in some cases for under $100. True, these are examples of yesterday’s technology. True also that because of the fast acceleration & growth of new technology, yesterday’s lineup must be priced accordingly for it to be able to compete. But, the real truth behind it is to do with the much more efficient, cost-effective manufacturing techniques that are currently being used. Over the next twenty years, the cost of consumer electronics will continue to fall even further. I absolutely guarantee it!

Since the introduction of solid state, a hobby in electronics was considered to be a starting / entry point for anyone exploring the possibilities of a career as a technician or in some cases an engineer. True, some of the best engineers have no formal qualifications. Some self-employed engineers may have completed a technician qualification and then pursued other studies on their own accord. However, I feel, this will soon all be a well-known scenario that’s a thing of the past. Technology is becoming increasingly more and more complex while the cost of the finished product to the end-user is taking on a steep decent. Tomorrow’s engineers will need to have the intellect of a doctor and the creativity of an artist to even be considered.

Turning the clock back say, twenty years, TV servicing, a thriving industry it indeed was. Well paid – (from what I’ve read) – always plenty of work, apprenticeships were the entry level, a hobby in electronics on the side always made for a better-equipped and much more knowledgeable tech. It is said that technicians can render themselves defunct if they don’t continuously keep up with the changes in technology by either doing a refresher course every five years, or reading hobby magazines / books on the side. Speaking of hobby magazines, they’ve all changed too. It’s seldom now that we see articles with insights on servicing & DIY test gear to aid the serviceman. Now all we see is gizmos & gadgets aimed at “gifted” people that love working with their hands.

Most people, I believe, will not pay $100 for a KIT of parts that does very little when compared to a DVD player that they can go and buy for $35. It should be at least agreeable that this sort of arrangement wouldn’t encourage any new comers to the hobby. Even the most modern and elegant kits which incorporate double sided through hole-plated boards are still emphasizing on technology which is almost near prehistoric. There is very little to learn from building them nowadays. To top it off, in my opinion, they also do very little when compared with today’s boarder line “wow factor” consumer electronics. There are only three things that I believe would motivate someone to go and purchase a kit. 1) I’ll save money by building it myself. 2) I’ll learn something new from it. 3) There’s nothing else like it on the market so I’ll have to build it myself if I really want it.

With nothing to learn, no money to save, the projects are boring; electronics magazines are soon to be a thing of the past! Over the last few years the cover price of most magazines in this domain has slowly increased to make up for the missing portion of readers that no longer buy it. The only thing keeping them currently alive is yesterday’s generation - You and I. In Australia, there’s no such thing as a formal trade in electronic service anymore. There is as such a course in electronics, which focuses a portion of it on GUI design! There will always be a call for engineers. But with tomorrow’s generation, there will be no service technician. It will continue to become increasingly more economically feasible to just throw faulty appliances in the trash and go and buy a new one.

All told, as the number of enthusiasts continues to decline, components, tools and so on will become increasingly harder-to-obtain. Eventually, manufactures will no longer find it economically viable to produce them. If you’re still keen on it all then you’ll have to be prepared to work with surface mount. Already, in Australia, many retail outlets are ceasing to stock these goods. Some outlets have transformed themselves into toy shops. No longer relying just on the sale of electronic components, they now sell radio controlled cars and other cheap gizmo's and trinkets. You’ll always be able to buy a soldering iron from somewhere, don’t get me wrong, it’s just that you may not always be able to find a 100 ohm through hole mount resistor.

In a nutshell, the only thing that’s really foreseeable in the future for electronics as a hobby is remembrance. To really appreciate what I’m saying, you need to try and consider what technology you’ll be surrounded by in the future. Do you really think that you’re going to be able to build anything even remotely as good yourself?

Trent Jackson - 05/03/07

[Luciano]

Hi Trent,

This is true for consumer electronics in most parts of the world.

* * *

What about industrial electronics?

How do you control your Vegemite packaging machines?
There are so many applications for microcontrollers!

Best regards,

Luciano

[Melanie]

People used to make (and still do!!) Crystal Set Radios despite the fact that tripple-superheterodyne receivers with digital displays probably cost the same amount of money as the Retail price of the sum of parts for the Crystal Set. Why? To learn something. To get a sense of achievement and accomplishment. Just for the fun of it.

When tag-strips and point-to-point wiring became obsolete in favour of PCB's, hobbyists probably cried that they wouldn't be able to make PCB's and it would kill the hobby. It didn't. People adapt. Moving forward, folks on this forum play with, and interface with, GPS for example. They didn't make the receiver - it was bought-in as a module, but there's still a lot of mileage and fun playing with, and designing products with those.

I've got a drawer full of ideas that I want to progress when I've a free moment... some of those ideas are for valves... you know those things with heaters and anodes and grids... Why? "It's all been done before" you might say. Sure, but it's not been done MY WAY, and there's nothing nicer than walking down Hight Street Anytown and seeing something you've designed in a shop window. There's that feeling of satisfaction and accomplishment again. Not quite orgasmic - but close.

I do really think however that one thing has gone down the pan... fifty years ago when you played with 400v HT supplies and you didn't know what you were doing, you didn't last long - kinda survival of the fittest. Those wannabe's ended up falling by the wayside (usually in a smoudering heap). Evolution at work - you had respect for the survivors. Sadly, there is a perfect example of the true state of affairs today, with a request for conversion of code from Assembler to Basic where the poster hasn't a clue of either, yet still wants to produce a working PIC project of some complexity. Gimme strength!

[malc-c]

I don't think hobby electronics will ever die and fade away.. there will always be people with an interest and a market to cater for that interest nomatter how small. Years ago most large towns had a component shop, where now most parts have to be ordered online / mailorder from places like RS / Farnell / Rapid (in the UK) and Digikey / Mouser etc in the US. Having said that Maplin here in the UK still offer the option to buy most common components at most of there shops throughout the UK.

Agreed as far as consumer electronics go we are in a throw away world, and that has killed of the service industry in countries where labour rates are fairly high by comparason to what the units can be imported for. having said that I've always been interested in the challange to keep things working and will always source out a part to keep the washing machine / tumble dryer running. And as Mel said you get that nsatisfaction of knowing that I did that

I'm new to PICs and for me I still find it exciting when you type some words into an application on the screen and then after a few clicks load the code into a small device, plug it in to my breadboard and it works first time (well most of the time )

I also echo Mel's comments about knowing that something you've made or developed your way is in use somewhere in the world. With the help of then guys here I've just completed a project for a local club. True we could of gone out and purchased a commercial unit for about twice the cost of the component, and it would of saved me hours of head scratching (both mine and those who helped with the code).. but it gives me a nice feeling to know that something I built is working better than any commercial unit and is giving pleasure to others who don't have any interest or understanding of these things.

Also, there is the learning aspect. A few years I had no idea how a PIC worked (still don't if I'm totaly honest) but I've picked up enough understanding and learnt from the guys here to be able to program a PIC to do most things that I have an interest in - some having no real use commercially or to anyone else, but itsn given me a lot of fun in developing each project and learning along the way.

Mel also commented on the advancement of technology, from strip board to PCB's. We've also seen the PC enter the home and now its possible for anyone to use a free application to produce some really good PCB's using either toner transfer method or UV photo. We also use the PC to author our PBP programs, and load the HEX to the PIC via suitable software and hardware... I don't see this as being detrimental to hobby electronics... just that where in the past we used to work out the type and array of logic chips etc we needed, now we look at doing the whole thing in a small 8 pin package instead

[keithdoxey]

Years ago most large towns had a component shop, where now most parts have to be ordered online / mailorder from places like RS / Farnell / Rapid (in the UK) and Digikey / Mouser etc in the US.

Agreed. I can still remember buying my first LED from MM Electronics in Norwich about 30 years ago when I was at college. We sat in the corridor waiting for the classroom to open and were playing with the LED, a few resistors and a 6V lantern battery.

We experimented with different resistor values and observed that lower value resistors gave a brighter light except that strangely with no resistor it got dimmer and the leads got warm. After a few comparisons of resistor/no resistor a horrible smell filled the corridor and the magic smoke escaped from the LED after which it was a DED (Dark Emiting Dud).

So, approximately 30 minutes after buying the first LED we were planning a trip the following lunchtime to buy the second having learnt an expensive lesson as the LED cost the same as two pints of beer !!!!

The vast majority of my components now come from Rapid. I started using them over 20 years ago when the catalogue was about 1/4inch thick, now it is about 2 inches thick!!!

Having said that Maplin here in the UK still offer the option to buy most common components at most of there shops throughout the UK.

You can not be serious !!!!

I first became a Maplin customer in 1978 and for many years they were my prefered supplier, good catalogue, good prices and excellent service but since they turned into a replacement for Tandy (Radio Shack) I have hardly bought a thing from them as they no longer stock most of the components I want to buy and where they do still sell components that I buy they are vastly overpriced.

I remember the first time I walked into a Maplin Shop, it was Manchester and it was superb. What I particularly liked was the fact that things like cases were openly on display and you could then visualise your project built into one whereas looking at a picture and the dimensions just didnt have the same effect.

I looked forward to the opening of the Norwich store which although 20 miles away would still mean that I could be browsing within the hour and potentially building within 2 hours. Then the store opened..... what a disappointment.

It was like being in Tandy. The majority of the display space was taken up by ready made toys and several of the staff looked/sounded as if they would only be able to identify the hot end of a soldering iron if it was actually turned on.

Attempting to buy components was even worse. Maybe I have peculiar demands in purchasing parts but it seemed that many of the parts I tried to buy werent stocked in the shop but had to be sent from the main warehouse which at first they would do without any postal charges but last time I tried they also wanted P&P. Even "common" components only had minimal stock holding. I wanted 4 Standard Mono Jack Plugs. I ended up buying 2 mono and 2 stereo and strapping them to Mono because they didnt have enough.

Maplin are now bottom of my list of component suppliers which is a shame as the "original" Maplin company was superb.

[T.Jackson]

One thing that I forgot to mention, it is possible that it might "bounce back".
innovators, highly skilled creative geniuses might save the day.

How?
By getting more people interested in it. The only way to do this is to come up with projects that just simply can't be bought pre-made. Projects that will dazzle even the most hard-to-impress people. Projects that will make a salesman run down the road to purchase a soldering iron just to build it...

Otherwise, I give it all 5 to 10 years. Within 5yrs there will be no magazines. Within 10 there will be no suppliers.

I rest my case.

Trent Jackson

[malc-c]

You can not be serious !!!!

I didn't say they were cheap, and I did say most components

I agree that Maplin now seem to fill their shelves with these cheap toys and the like, rather than stocking full range of components and modules, and I guess that it will only be a matter of time before the racks space for the components will be replaced with more tat. However, Maplin are fairly cheap, when compared to RS for example, and yes you can buy single resistors rather than 10 or 100.

[T.Jackson]

People used to make (and still do!!) Crystal Set Radios despite the fact that tripple-superheterodyne receivers with digital displays probably cost the same amount of money as the Retail price of the sum of parts for the Crystal Set. Why? To learn something. To get a sense of achievement and accomplishment. Just for the fun of it.

Having been the author of a dozen practical projects that have been published in the Silicon Chip magazine, I can truly appreciate the term "Just for the fun of it". I have been involved in some way or other with DIY electronics for the past 10 years. My main motivation has always been for "a sense of achievement and accomplishment" Some of my projects have been sold as commercial kits. Two of my most recent use a PIC16f877a.

There's always going to be some people around, perhaps 1 in a 1,000 that are wanting some involvement in electronics as a hobby. Problem is, when 1 in 1,000 becomes 1 in 100,000 sources for it as a hobby will vanish. Magazines, books, kits (already starting to happen), parts and so on.

Like anything else in this World, it's a mere case of "supply & demand". It's what makes the World go round. No rocket science here.

Best Regards,
Trent Jackson

[T.Jackson]

Hi Trent,

This is true for consumer electronics in most parts of the world.

* * *

What about industrial electronics?

How do you control your Vegemite packaging machines?
There are so many applications for microcontrollers!

Best regards,

Luciano

Hi Luciano,

Industrial electronics?
In all honesty, I don't know enough about it to comment. Anyone care to share some thoughts?

Best Regards,
Trent Jackson

[Etcho]

Actually I disagree - Its true most DIP/through hole stuff will be gone in 10-15 years but SMD will be around for a good while longer. Most of the stores you can walk into will no longer sell parts BUT I believe mail order places will still exist, when I buy parts - for example resistors or diodes I always get them in packs of 100-200, I believe that the electronics industry will still produce packages that are usable by us.

I can see in the future a low cost Pick and place machine coming out along with a reflow soldering station.

But to say that all hobby electronics is going to die is hopefully absurd.

[T.Jackson]

As Melanie pointed out earlier, "people will adapt". People who are still keen on it that is. People who are prepared to continuously educate themselves though possibly a lot of trial & error because of an absence of published literature, projects, kits, and they'll be working with surface mount components. Sure, there will always be a few people floating around with a hot soldering iron in their hand on a lazy Sunday afternoon attempting to make a LED flasher for the cost of the tools alone. No thanks.

Trent Jackson

[Etcho]

So beyond trying to depress everyone what exactly is the point of your post?

Complaining, bickering and bringing everyone down certainly doesn't help.....

[T.Jackson]

My intentions are far from trying to depress anyone. My motivation behind this post is to provide somewhat of an insight, on what I believe is install for the future. It's informative news. It's life. Simply put, if you're involved in some way or other with electronics in 20 years time you're either a genius or an engineer. Plenty of other hobbies around. Don't sweat it, I'm not.

Trent Jackson

[Etcho]

heh well hopefully in the future I will reach the engineer status (going to college right now), I can't belive you mainly becuase currently its my main hobby.

I take a more optimistic look at the future - what you think will happen will happen.

[keithdoxey]

People who are prepared to continuously educate themselves though possibly a lot of trial & error because of an absence of published literature, projects, kits, and they'll be working with surface mount components.

Sorry, but I dont get that comment!!!

In most subjects you are "continuously educated" because no-one can ever know everything. New tools, components, methods are always emerging in most fields.

Trial and error is how you learn. If you assemble a kit and it works then you know how to assemble a kit. If you assemble a kit or build something from scratch and it DOESNT WORK then you have to fix it. That means you have to learn what all the components do and how it should function. Once you have fixed it you then understand far more about the circuit and use that information in the future.

As for the absence of "published literature", 20 years ago, if a new IC came out that looked interesting you had to pay for a poorly photocopied datasheet from your component supplier, now you just download it.

If YOU didnt know the answer to a problem then you probably had little chance of ever getting it working unless you knew someone else who was trying to achieve the same thing, now with the internet you just Google and either find the answer straight off, or as in the case of this forum, get like minded people applying their varied experience to thrash out a solution.

The internet has create millions of "hobby clubs" covering every subject under the sun and put people in touch with each other that would never ever have met.

In my opinion the biggest threat to a hobby such as ours is legislation that limits the activities that we can do. ROHS, CE, UL etc etc.

Whilst there are less magazines available and less places to buy components locally, the availability of components has never been wider. Online catalogues mean that you can buy bits from anywhere in the world whereas previously you would have been totally unaware of their existance.

On the downside, if your computer dies then you are totally stuffed. Cant read the datasheets, cant order bits,cant program chips, and cant summon help. LOL

[Melanie]

> In most subjects you are "continuously educated" ...

A very wise man I once knew always quoted an old Polish saying to us youngsters... "education does not end at school but at death" ...cheerful kinda guy...

[keithdoxey]

> In most subjects you are "continuously educated" ...

A very wise man I once knew always quoted an old Polish saying to us youngsters... "education does not end at school but at death" ...cheerful kinda guy...

I cant remember where I saw it but there was a comment that the only thing you really learn at school is How to learn and I believe that to be true. Apart from the basics of reading writing and arithmetic (or maths if you prefer) I think that very little of what I was taught in school has any bearing on my knowledge today.

In Geography we learnt mostly about foreign countries that no longer exist or have changed their names but didnt learn where all the different counties of the UK were.

In History we learnt starting at the year "dot" and working forwards. By the time I stopped doing history we were just about touching on the Industrial Revolution and didnt really do anything on the 20th Century whereas IMHO the last 100 years have had far more influence on our lives than the preceding 2000 therefore we should have started within living memory and worked backwards.

[T.Jackson]

> In most subjects you are "continuously educated" ...

A very wise man I once knew always quoted an old Polish saying to us youngsters... "education does not end at school but at death" ...cheerful kinda guy...

I agree, in most walks of life you are always being "continuously educated".
But I think, it's much more so a case of this with anything that's technical.

In any professional field you never stop learning. But in any professional technical field, the re-occurrence of a whole new learning curve is by far much more frequent. For example; a doctor spends 6 years at UNI, graduates, finds a job. In a period of say, a year, what's likely to change in this field? My guess is new or improved medication and not much else.

Consider the same scenario for an engineer. What's likely to change in a year?
A bloody lot more! I recall my old college teacher telling me that a technician
can render themselves redundant within 5 years of finishing their trade it they don't constantly revise things. This could mean a whole new learning curve if you've been out of it for too long. So far as to say redoing the entire trade again. Can't picture a doctor ever having to redo UNI.

Trent Jackson