The Future Of Hobby Electronics.
During the summer of 1947, Tuesday, December 16th, Walter Brattain & John Bardeen invented the World’s first solid-state transistor. Indisputably, you wouldn’t be reading this text on your computer screen right now without the advent of this discovery. Modern technology relies entirely upon millions of integrated transistors to perform some of today’s even “most simplest” tasks. Highly sophisticated computing soon to be approaching the usage of billions upon billions jam packed into an area about the size of the head on a matchstick. Some consumer electrical goods are now costing more to dispose of than to purchase new. The service technician’s days are undoubtedly numbered if not already over. Nothing that’s economically feasible to repair means little or next to no work for today’s aging serviceman.
Currently the retail cost of consumer electronics is absolutely “mind-boggling”. And that’s even putting it mildly. Brand new DVD players with full warranty can be purchased for as little as $35 AUS. CRT televisions can be purchased in some cases for under $100. True, these are examples of yesterday’s technology. True also that because of the fast acceleration & growth of new technology, yesterday’s lineup must be priced accordingly for it to be able to compete. But, the real truth behind it is to do with the much more efficient, cost-effective manufacturing techniques that are currently being used. Over the next twenty years, the cost of consumer electronics will continue to fall even further. I absolutely guarantee it!
Since the introduction of solid state, a hobby in electronics was considered to be a starting / entry point for anyone exploring the possibilities of a career as a technician or in some cases an engineer. True, some of the best engineers have no formal qualifications. Some self-employed engineers may have completed a technician qualification and then pursued other studies on their own accord. However, I feel, this will soon all be a well-known scenario that’s a thing of the past. Technology is becoming increasingly more and more complex while the cost of the finished product to the end-user is taking on a steep decent. Tomorrow’s engineers will need to have the intellect of a doctor and the creativity of an artist to even be considered.
Turning the clock back say, twenty years, TV servicing, a thriving industry it indeed was. Well paid – (from what I’ve read) – always plenty of work, apprenticeships were the entry level, a hobby in electronics on the side always made for a better-equipped and much more knowledgeable tech. It is said that technicians can render themselves defunct if they don’t continuously keep up with the changes in technology by either doing a refresher course every five years, or reading hobby magazines / books on the side. Speaking of hobby magazines, they’ve all changed too. It’s seldom now that we see articles with insights on servicing & DIY test gear to aid the serviceman. Now all we see is gizmos & gadgets aimed at “gifted” people that love working with their hands.
Most people, I believe, will not pay $100 for a KIT of parts that does very little when compared to a DVD player that they can go and buy for $35. It should be at least agreeable that this sort of arrangement wouldn’t encourage any new comers to the hobby. Even the most modern and elegant kits which incorporate double sided through hole-plated boards are still emphasizing on technology which is almost near prehistoric. There is very little to learn from building them nowadays. To top it off, in my opinion, they also do very little when compared with today’s boarder line “wow factor” consumer electronics. There are only three things that I believe would motivate someone to go and purchase a kit. 1) I’ll save money by building it myself. 2) I’ll learn something new from it. 3) There’s nothing else like it on the market so I’ll have to build it myself if I really want it.
With nothing to learn, no money to save, the projects are boring; electronics magazines are soon to be a thing of the past! Over the last few years the cover price of most magazines in this domain has slowly increased to make up for the missing portion of readers that no longer buy it. The only thing keeping them currently alive is yesterday’s generation - You and I. In Australia, there’s no such thing as a formal trade in electronic service anymore. There is as such a course in electronics, which focuses a portion of it on GUI design! There will always be a call for engineers. But with tomorrow’s generation, there will be no service technician. It will continue to become increasingly more economically feasible to just throw faulty appliances in the trash and go and buy a new one.
All told, as the number of enthusiasts continues to decline, components, tools and so on will become increasingly harder-to-obtain. Eventually, manufactures will no longer find it economically viable to produce them. If you’re still keen on it all then you’ll have to be prepared to work with surface mount. Already, in Australia, many retail outlets are ceasing to stock these goods. Some outlets have transformed themselves into toy shops. No longer relying just on the sale of electronic components, they now sell radio controlled cars and other cheap gizmo's and trinkets. You’ll always be able to buy a soldering iron from somewhere, don’t get me wrong, it’s just that you may not always be able to find a 100 ohm through hole mount resistor.
In a nutshell, the only thing that’s really foreseeable in the future for electronics as a hobby is remembrance. To really appreciate what I’m saying, you need to try and consider what technology you’ll be surrounded by in the future. Do you really think that you’re going to be able to build anything even remotely as good yourself?
Trent Jackson - 05/03/07
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Originally Posted by Melanie
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