The Future Of Hobby Electronics.
During the summer of 1947, Tuesday, December 16th, Walter Brattain & John Bardeen invented the World’s first solid-state transistor. Indisputably, you wouldn’t be reading this text on your computer screen right now without the advent of this discovery. Modern technology relies entirely upon millions of integrated transistors to perform some of today’s even “most simplest” tasks. Highly sophisticated computing soon to be approaching the usage of billions upon billions jam packed into an area about the size of the head on a matchstick. Some consumer electrical goods are now costing more to dispose of than to purchase new. The service technician’s days are undoubtedly numbered if not already over. Nothing that’s economically feasible to repair means little or next to no work for today’s aging serviceman.
Currently the retail cost of consumer electronics is absolutely “mind-boggling”. And that’s even putting it mildly. Brand new DVD players with full warranty can be purchased for as little as $35 AUS. CRT televisions can be purchased in some cases for under $100. True, these are examples of yesterday’s technology. True also that because of the fast acceleration & growth of new technology, yesterday’s lineup must be priced accordingly for it to be able to compete. But, the real truth behind it is to do with the much more efficient, cost-effective manufacturing techniques that are currently being used. Over the next twenty years, the cost of consumer electronics will continue to fall even further. I absolutely guarantee it!
Since the introduction of solid state, a hobby in electronics was considered to be a starting / entry point for anyone exploring the possibilities of a career as a technician or in some cases an engineer. True, some of the best engineers have no formal qualifications. Some self-employed engineers may have completed a technician qualification and then pursued other studies on their own accord. However, I feel, this will soon all be a well-known scenario that’s a thing of the past. Technology is becoming increasingly more and more complex while the cost of the finished product to the end-user is taking on a steep decent. Tomorrow’s engineers will need to have the intellect of a doctor and the creativity of an artist to even be considered.
Turning the clock back say, twenty years, TV servicing, a thriving industry it indeed was. Well paid – (from what I’ve read) – always plenty of work, apprenticeships were the entry level, a hobby in electronics on the side always made for a better-equipped and much more knowledgeable tech. It is said that technicians can render themselves defunct if they don’t continuously keep up with the changes in technology by either doing a refresher course every five years, or reading hobby magazines / books on the side. Speaking of hobby magazines, they’ve all changed too. It’s seldom now that we see articles with insights on servicing & DIY test gear to aid the serviceman. Now all we see is gizmos & gadgets aimed at “gifted” people that love working with their hands.
Most people, I believe, will not pay $100 for a KIT of parts that does very little when compared to a DVD player that they can go and buy for $35. It should be at least agreeable that this sort of arrangement wouldn’t encourage any new comers to the hobby. Even the most modern and elegant kits which incorporate double sided through hole-plated boards are still emphasizing on technology which is almost near prehistoric. There is very little to learn from building them nowadays. To top it off, in my opinion, they also do very little when compared with today’s boarder line “wow factor” consumer electronics. There are only three things that I believe would motivate someone to go and purchase a kit. 1) I’ll save money by building it myself. 2) I’ll learn something new from it. 3) There’s nothing else like it on the market so I’ll have to build it myself if I really want it.
With nothing to learn, no money to save, the projects are boring; electronics magazines are soon to be a thing of the past! Over the last few years the cover price of most magazines in this domain has slowly increased to make up for the missing portion of readers that no longer buy it. The only thing keeping them currently alive is yesterday’s generation - You and I. In Australia, there’s no such thing as a formal trade in electronic service anymore. There is as such a course in electronics, which focuses a portion of it on GUI design! There will always be a call for engineers. But with tomorrow’s generation, there will be no service technician. It will continue to become increasingly more economically feasible to just throw faulty appliances in the trash and go and buy a new one.
All told, as the number of enthusiasts continues to decline, components, tools and so on will become increasingly harder-to-obtain. Eventually, manufactures will no longer find it economically viable to produce them. If you’re still keen on it all then you’ll have to be prepared to work with surface mount. Already, in Australia, many retail outlets are ceasing to stock these goods. Some outlets have transformed themselves into toy shops. No longer relying just on the sale of electronic components, they now sell radio controlled cars and other cheap gizmo's and trinkets. You’ll always be able to buy a soldering iron from somewhere, don’t get me wrong, it’s just that you may not always be able to find a 100 ohm through hole mount resistor.
In a nutshell, the only thing that’s really foreseeable in the future for electronics as a hobby is remembrance. To really appreciate what I’m saying, you need to try and consider what technology you’ll be surrounded by in the future. Do you really think that you’re going to be able to build anything even remotely as good yourself?
Trent Jackson - 05/03/07
There is still hope but don't hold your breath!
One thing that I forgot to mention, it is possible that it might "bounce back".
innovators, highly skilled creative geniuses might save the day.
How?
By getting more people interested in it. The only way to do this is to come up with projects that just simply can't be bought pre-made. Projects that will dazzle even the most hard-to-impress people. Projects that will make a salesman run down the road to purchase a soldering iron just to build it...
Otherwise, I give it all 5 to 10 years. Within 5yrs there will be no magazines. Within 10 there will be no suppliers.
I rest my case.
Trent Jackson
Order??? Catalog?? no way :-)
I just went to my favorite store. It is acctually 3 big supremarkets with several floors selling everything you can wish for over the counter in single units, surface mount to things used in the WW1 russian radios :-). Today's shopping list was:
5 pcs LM3940-3.3
2 pcs (two) 0.25W 22 ohm hole mounted resistors
2 pcs 5mW lasers
2 pcs 10 mW lasers
10 pcs 22k variable resistors
2 MicroSD card holders
total cost USD 12
I really can't see the problem and tomorrow I will order PCB's with a 7 days delivery time, but I could get it in 24 hours....
/me
hobby and business electronics
I got into electronics about when the old amateur radio operators were dieing off. My first short wave radios were home made using tubes. Back before PCBs I collected dead TVs and cut the parts out to reuse. The resistors and capacitors were point to point connected with long leads. The use of PCB really hindered my collecting used parts.
Twenty years ago I said I will get out of this business when my eyes are so bad I can no longer see the color code on resistors. They do not put color on resistors now! I hand solder parts the size of pepper. How can a hobbyist work with surface mount parts? Radio Shack does not sell resistors.
I feel sad there are no HAM / electronics clubs left where we build fun stuff. There are many kids writing PC code, maybe the creative minds are there or maybe they are watching “adult cartoons”.
Design jobs are hard to find so I have been doing ½ time plumbing and electrical for the same money. I hire engineers from Russia and China for 1/10 rate. I can see the writing on the wall---we are starting a new company with no electronics. I am very reluctantly giving up on my “hobby and business” of 35+ years. –I am feeling down today and this thread hit me wrong—sorry! I must pick my self up and finish that FPGA design.
Hobby electronics was powered by HAM radio and that has vanished years ago. Micro-computers and robots fuel hobby electronics. Our club is getting smaller—it will not die!
Not to drag up a long dead post...
But why do we use PIC micros? I mean, I remember using tons of logic IC's that I can still get from about 10 different sources just thinking off the top of my head.. But I can do all that work in code and have just a few parts. Why mess with a 555 timer when i can code one and have it do exactly what i want? change is just part of it. Sometimes because we want an easier path, sometimes because the path changes on us. The old timers will still find a way to get DIPs that do what they need, the younger guys will grow up on surface mount and not have a bit of problem doing it. I mean guys are using wal-mart toaster ovens to reflow! the price of hot air irons have dropped way down. I can get a second hand analog scope that works fine for next to nothing now, and if i want, a PC based digital one for not much more... things change, but we always find a way... As far as HAM goes, i've never had an interest in it.. I mean sure, you get to play with electronics, but to a means to talk to people over a radio.. I like the phone myself.. So it may drive some people to get into electronics, but not everyone. and you guys should try working for the government or military, pretty much everything is old, old, old... and will remain that way for a long time (if you love tubes, you'll fit right in...) you might not get in as a GOV employee, but contractors are always in hot demand.. But.. if you are doing this as a hobby and to learn, now is the perfect time to be doing it! I love learning about new parts, I love learning about new tools and ways to do things. figuring out a way forward is the best part in my opinion!